Landuse Scenarios


Landuses - from historical conditions to future scenarios

 The map of land use and land cover was provided by the State Institute for the Environment  (IEMA) and is derived from from the national 1m2 aerial survey that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008. This map contains 25 different classes, including agricultural crops, forestry, water bodies, mineral exploration, rocky outcrops, vegetation, urban area and exposed soil. This landcover scheme will from hence be referred to as IEMA2007.

 For the past vegetation scenario, we used the 1996 national landcover data (GEOBASE96) which was the national landcover product up until IEMA2007.  Since the classification schemes were different between these two landcover data, we converted both the GEOBASE96 and IEMA2007 to a generalized 11 classes. We used a spatial overlay analysis that took into account the frequency of all unique landcover combinations and correlated the different vegetation class from both dataset into a common classification scheme.

 IEMA2007 formed the baseline vegetation for hypothetical future runs and we created four different hypothetical landuse scenarios (Fig. 3.3 and Fig.3.4) that were pertinent to the region in order to test changes in the hydrologic regime due to decrease in forest cover and an increase in eucalyptus plantation and agriculture. The first scenario reverted upland croplands, lowland agriculture, regenerated forests and eucalyptus back to the native forest of tropical moist broadleaf. The second to fourth scenarios are based on future projected landuse change that are outline in the state’s urban planning handbook (personal correspondence). The second scenario forecasted a 25% in agricultural crops (Ag.+25%) and we generated this landcover dataset by growing a 25% buffer of new agriculture patches around existing cells into surrounding natural or secondary forests. This increased the overall agricultural area to 16.6% for the Jucu (from 13.1%) and 18.2% for SMV (from 15.3%).

 The third scenario and fourth scenario expanded the eucalyptus plantation buffer by 25% (Euc.+25%)and 50% (Euc.+50%) respectively into forested areas. This increased the overall eucalyptus plantation areas to 5.1% and 10.2% for the Jucu and 7.8% and 15.3% for the SMV.

Landuse scenarios for the Rio Santa Maria da Vitoria (SMV) basin


 Landuse scenarios for the Rio Jucu basin


The results of this study has resulted in a peer-reviewed paper. The data for this study can be obtained by contacting the authors.

Tan, A., Ward, N.D., Delmonte, K., Richey, J.E. (in review, 2015): Effects of land use change on the hydrologic regime in the Jucu and Santa Maria da Vitória river basins in Espírito Santo, Brazil. Forest ecology and management